18: Kevin Campbell, Arsenal, Merlin’s Premier League 95 Sticker Collection

Today Mat Jolin-Beech brings us a level of statistical analysis hitherto unseen on the humble pages of this blog. He also appears to have invented an algorithm so sophisticated it could probably sort out the next batch of GCSE and A Level results as well as providing us with the ultimate England squad. It’s worth noting that Mat wrote this all the way back in April so lord knows what might have happened to the Three Lions’ leading lights since. Still, it should be a laugh anyway. Over to Mat.

Now is the time of the season, especially as Manchester City appear to have the league title wrapped up, when thoughts turn to the England squad for the Euros. Who’s a dead cert? Who is most likely on the plane? Who is making a late run? Who should be nowhere near? And who should be there, but won’t be? This made me think, who is the best player to never get an England cap? One Google search later and I had my answer: Kevin Campbell.

Now, nothing against him. He was a decent player. In fact, Campbell holds the record of being the English player who has scored the most goals in the Premier League without earning a senior cap for his country. I could waffle on about him, his time at Everton, Arsenal or Trabzonspor. But this is a shallow excuse to talk England and Euro 2021. In particular, who should be in the squad if Gareth Southgate used stats and the stats only.

So, here is the stats-based squad for Euro 2021 and who would bring football home (at the time of writing 10 April 2021). To help decide the 23, a unique ASW500 rating will be created, based upon the stats below.

Goalkeepers

Nick Pope (Burnley) – 9 clean sheets, 106 saves, 76.8% - ASW500 = 191.8

Sam Johnstone (West Bromwich Albion) - 5 clean sheets, 116 saves, 69% - ASW500 = 190

Jordan Pickford (Everton) – 6 Clean sheets, 69 saves, 69% - ASW500 = 144

Reserves

Alex McCarthy (Southampton) – 7 clean sheets, 70 saves, 61.9% - ASW500 = 138.9

Dean Henderson (Manchester United) – 3 clean sheets, 21 saves, 84% - ASW500 = 108

Defenders

Kieran Trippier (Atletico Madrid) – 0.2 blocks, 1.8 tackles, 1.3 interceptions, 1.8 clearances [1 key pass, 6 assists] - ASW500 = 13.9

Aaron Cresswell (West Ham United) – 1 tackle, 0.4 blocks, 1 interception, 2.1 clearances [1.4 key passes, 7 assists] - ASW500 = 12.9

Luke Shaw (Manchester United) – 1.5 tackles, 0.2 blocks, 0.8 interceptions, 1.3 clearances [2 key passes, 5 assists] - ASW500 = 10.8

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool) – 1.4 tackles, 0 blocks, 1.2 interceptions, 1 clearance [1.9 key passes, 4 assists] - ASW500 = 9.5

Ben Mee (Burnley) – 1.1 tackles, 1.5 blocks, 1.3 interceptions, 5.1 clearances - ASW500 = 9

Tosin Adarabioyo (Fulham) – 1.1 tackles, 0.6 blocks, 1.3 interceptions, 5.9 clearances - ASW500 = 8.9

Jonathan Panzo (Dijon) – 0.7 tackles, 0.7 blocks, 2.6 interceptions, 4.2 clearances - ASW500 = 8.2

Mason Holgate (Everton) – 2.5 tackles, 0.4 blocks, 1.5 interceptions, 3.3 clearances - ASW500 = 7.7

Reserves

Matthew Cash (Aston Villa) – 2.7 tackles, 0.4 blocks, 2.4 interceptions, 3 clearances - ASW500 = 8.5

Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa) – 0.8 tackles, 1 block, 1 interception, 4.8 clearances - ASW500 = 7.6

James Justin (Leicester City) – 2.7 tackles, 0.4 blocks, 1.3 interceptions, 1.9 clearances - ASW500 = 6.3

Midfielders

Jack Grealish (Aston Villa) – 3.4 key passes, 10 assists, 40.9 passes per game - ASW500 = 177.3

Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund) – 2.8 key passes, 9 assists, 53.6 passes per game - ASW500 = 171.6

James Ward-Prowse (Southampton) – 1.4 key passes, 5 assists, 65.4 passes per game - ASW500 = 129.4

Eric Dier (Tottenham Hotspure) – 0.8 tackles, 1.1 blocks, 0.9 interceptions, 4.8 clearances, 0.2 key passes, 0 assists, 62.4 passes per game - ASW500 = 115.2

Raheem Sterling (Manchester City) – 1.3 key passes, 6 assists, 34.2 passes per game - ASW500 = 107.2

Jordan Henderson (Liverpool) – 0.7 key passes, 1 assist, 86.4 passes per game - ASW500 = 103.4

Mason Mount (Chelsea) – 2.4 key passes, 3 assists, 46.2 passes per game - ASW500 = 100.2

James Maddison (Leicester) – 1.8 key passes, 5 assists, 31.7 passes per game - ASW500 = 99.7

Jack Harrison (Leeds United) – 1.6 key passes, 5 assists, 27.1 passes per game - ASW500 = 93.1

Reserve

Ademola Lookman (Fulham) – 1.9 key passes, 4 assists, 31.5 passes per game - ASW500 = 90.5

Forwards

Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) – 19 goals, 13 assists (32 goal involvements) - ASW500 = 32

Patrick Bamford (Leeds United) – 14 goals, 7 assists (21 goal involvements) - ASW500 = 21

Marcus Rashford (Manchester United) – 10 goals, 7 assists (17 goal involvements) - ASW500 = 17

Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) – 12 goals, 3 assists (15 goal involvements) - ASW500 = 15

Reserves

Jamie Vardy (Leicester City) – 12 goals, 7 assists (retired from international football) (19 goal involvements) - ASW500 = 19

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton) – 14 goals, 0 assists (14 goal involvements) - ASW500 = 14

In this team are some new caps. But, as Kevin Campbell proved, stats do not mean international recognition. So, after all of this, and stretching the 500-word brief beyond its limit and the tenuous link to the best uncapped striker England has statistically seen, do I think this team would challenge for Euro 2021 glory? Unless Southgate channels inspiration from the Greece team from 2004: no. The point of all of this? Erm, to prove football is more than just stats and that it is an art….? That sounds philosophical enough.

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